新冠疫苗利好消息给全球经济带来一些希望,令市场情绪转变,投资者上个月大规模逃离黄金市场,投入了高风险资产的怀抱。

世界黄金协会(WGC)周三发布的数据显示,11月全球黄金ETF(交易所买卖基金)持仓录得一年来首下跌,且为历史上第二高的月度净流出;因全球股市的积极势头以及投资者风险偏好的提升,令黄金的吸引力降低,金价月内下跌并录得四年来最差的月度表现;与此同时,期权市场的看跌头寸亦有所增加。

世界黄金协会:11月全球黄金ETF创下史上第二大月度净流出

上月全球黄金ETF持仓下降了107吨(约合68亿美元,占总资产管理规模2.9%,下同),但今年前11个月的净流入达916吨(503亿美元),仍远高于此前任何一年的年度纪录。目前全球的黄金ETF总持仓为3,793吨,约合2,150亿美元。

投资者从黄金ETF撤出之际,黄金价格出现了4年来最糟糕的月度表现。

月内北美和欧洲的黄金ETF资产管理规模均有近3%的下降;亚洲基金总持仓小幅下降0.4吨(0.35亿美元,0.5%),其他地区的黄金ETF则出现了2吨的净流出(1.26亿美元,3.3%)。

世界黄金协会表示,尽管金价下跌,COMEX黄金期货的净多头寸与10月的766吨相比仅有微幅下降。值得注意的是,尽管黄金市场有一定抛售,但黄金期权市场的隐含波动率,即投资者对金价未来波动的预期,并没有显著增加。但看跌/看涨偏度升至一年以来的高位,与此同时,看涨偏度降至过去一年以来的最低。这或许说明虽然投资者不认为未来的金价会有大幅的波动,但他们更倾向增加金价下方空间的曝险,而非其上涨的潜力。

报告指出,随着美国大选结果公布以及有关新冠疫苗积极进展的消息,这两项前期市场关注的风险似乎暂告一段落。全球主要风险资产应声上涨,投资者的避险需求有所下降,黄金ETF出现净流出,国债利率上升,股市看跌看涨比率处于极度牛市区间等。

尽管世界黄金协会认为疲弱的全球经济对金饰和科技用金需求造成显著的负面影响,但最近的数据表明,持续改善的中国经济以及印度的节日季节已对黄金的消费需求产生了一定提振。

报告指出,在空前的投资者需求推动下,黄金市场今年仍表现出色。尽管11月份有所下降,但ETF市场上的黄金持有量较2019年增加了近50%。截至11月,今年已有916吨黄金流入ETF。

此外,在第三季度转变为小幅净卖出状态(10年来首次)后,全球央行的购金需求在10月份转正;全球低利率环境有望持续,这将有利于降低持有黄金的机会成本。

世界黄金协会投资研究经理Adam Perlaky在一次网络会议上表示,鉴于投资者人气改善,上月黄金的短期走势并不令人意外。他还补充称,黄金表现疲弱可能也有季节性因素,因11月历来是黄金表现最差的一个月。

尽管金价已从上月的四个月低点反弹,但世界黄金协会分析师表示,12月仍有可能出现金价走低和更多ETF卖出的情况。分析师指出,市场中的期权合约Put/Call比率升至一年高位。

分析师表示:“这表明,尽管投资者可能不会预期金价会出现大规模的波动,但他们的仓位配置更多是针对下行风险敞口,而非上行风险敞口。”

(责任编辑:王治强 HF013)

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