三季报业绩抢先看:88股预计净利翻倍 北上资金逆势增持这些股(表)

经济观察网 记者 张斌 2020年中报收官后,上市公司三季报业绩预期越来越受到市场的关注。

Wind数据显示,截至9月16日,沪深两市共有534家公司已披露三季报业绩预告,预喜率为36.89%,共197家。在业绩预喜的公司中,医药生物、化工、电气设备、电子行业的公司较多,分别为27家、25家、21家和20家。

近期资金面趋弱、利率上行压力较大,叠加外围波动,A股市场处于调整期。还有哪些方向适合在调整中布局?

88家公司预计净利翻倍

Wind数据显示,截至9月16日,已披露三季报业绩预告的534家上市公司中,以净利润增幅上限来看,有88家公司预计今年前三季度净利润增幅翻倍。其中,医药生物、电气设备、电子行业的公司较多,分别为12家、11家和9家。

从上市板块来看,预计今年前三季度净利润增幅翻倍的88家公司中,中小板公司最多,有65家。主板、创业板、科创板分别有12家、7家、4家。

值得一提的是,在预计前三季度净利润增幅翻倍的88家公司中,北新建材(000786,股吧)(000786.SZ)、圣湘生物(688289.SH)、三泰控股(002312,股吧)(002312.SZ)等19家公司净利润增幅预计超5倍。其中,生物医药行业有5家公司,计算机、电子、国防军工行业各有2家公司。

图1:预计前三季度净利润增幅超5倍的公司

三季报业绩抢先看:88股预计净利翻倍 北上资金逆势增持这些股(表)

数据来源:Wind

登陆科创板尚未满月的抗疫“尖兵”圣湘生物预计今年前三季度净利润增幅位列已披露三季报业绩预告的上市公司第二位。其在招股书中披露,预计今年前三季度可实现营业收入30亿元,与上年同期相比增长1131.11%;扣非后的归属于母公司股东的净利润为17.29亿元,与上年同期相比增长13457.15%,业绩快速增长。

新型冠状病毒核酸检测试剂等相关产品市场需求量短期内大幅增加极大得影响着圣湘生物的业绩。除了圣湘生物之外,上述19家预计前三季度净利润增幅超5倍的公司中,达安基因(002030,股吧)(002030.SZ)、康泰医学(300869.SZ)、明德生物(002932,股吧)(002932.SZ)及九安医疗(002432,股吧)(002432.SZ)的相关抗疫产品销量大增,增厚了业绩。

需求恢复致业绩预增

除了部分医药生物行业上市公司直接受益于疫情之外,其他行业上市公司业绩预增的原因不尽相同。其中,需求的迅速恢复以及产品产品涨价是这部分公司业绩预增的一项重要原因。

比如华峰超纤(300180,股吧)(300180.SZ)于9月16日盘后发布的前三季度业绩预告显示,其预计前三季度实现净利润16018.21万元至17714.14万元,同比增长54%至71%。其中,第三季度预计实现净利润11306.22万元至 13002.15万元,同比增长100%至130%。

对于业绩变动的原因,华峰超纤解释称,2020 年上半年由于疫情影响,公司超纤下游产品春夏款需求受到了严重影响,产销量同比出现了下滑。进入三季度以来,下游产品进入了秋冬款的开发,需求迅速恢复,产销量同比2019年出现了大幅增长,子公司启东项目已建成并投入使用,开工率逐步满产,带动了超纤业务的业绩提升。子公司威富通的各项新业务逐渐落地,带来了收入和利润的回升。

再以南都电源(300068,股吧)(300068.SZ)为例,该公司预计第三季度的净利润同比增长40%至70%,其中第三季度的净利润预计同比增长104%至232%。其表示,1-9 月,公司通信5G及数据中心后备电源需求大幅增长,公司全力组织生产满足交付需求,产品出货量比去年同期增长,业绩贡献比去年同期增长;民用动力产品出货量比去年同期增长,业绩贡献基本保持稳定;储能产品营业收入及业绩贡献比去年同期增长。

此外,新能源汽车锂电池上游重要原材料之一的六氟磷酸锂的价格在沉寂了三年后,近期又开始明显上涨。据百川盈孚数据显示,9月7日,六氟磷酸锂国产价格为72000元/吨~75000元/吨,较9月4日上涨1000元。涨价原因系电解液出货量明显向好,部分厂家订单量激增,甚至出现无法交付的情况。而9月10日,六氟磷酸锂市场均价在7.35万元/吨,较9月7日再度上涨1000元/吨。9月以来累计涨幅已达到4000元/吨。

需求及价格的回暖也对相关上市公司的业绩形成利好。拥有锂离子电池材料板块的天赐材料(002709,股吧)(002709.SZ)预计今年前三季度的净利润变动区间为5亿元至5.5亿元,较去年同期上升幅度区间为455.43%至510.98%,主要原因之一为:锂离子电池材料电解液产品销量增长,产品原材料自产率提升,毛利率提升。

天赐材料在9月4日披露的投资者关系活动记录中称,三季度以来电解液市场需求量持续增长,带动六氟磷酸锂的需求已趋旺盛,据悉市场近期交易价格有一定幅度的上涨。目前公司有3万吨/年的液体六氟磷酸锂及2000吨/年的固体六氟磷酸锂产能。由于公司生产的六氟磷酸锂主要是自用为主,因此产量主要根据公司的需求来进行安排。公司在建项目年产15万吨锂电材料项目里包含了6万吨/年的液体六氟磷酸锂产线,预计能够满足未来六氟磷酸锂需求。

北上资金逆势增持

Wind数据显示,9月以来,北向资金净流出138.99亿元,其中沪股通净流出137.96亿元,深股通净流出1.03亿元。

值得注意的是,Wind数据统计显示,三季报预喜个股中,有26只个股9月以来(9月1日至16日)获得北向资金逆势增持。其中,增持比例(占总股本比例)超过0.05%(含0.05%)的个股有20只。

图2:北向资金增持比例超过0.05%(含0.05%)的个股

三季报业绩抢先看:88股预计净利翻倍 北上资金逆势增持这些股(表)

数据来源:Wind

具体来看,光迅科技(002281,股吧)(002281.SZ)、长春高新(000661,股吧)(000661.SZ)、蓝帆医疗(002382,股吧)(002382.SZ)增持比例居前,分别为1.05%、1.01%、0.67%。此外,木林森(002745,股吧)(002745.SZ)、达安基因(002030.SZ)、德赛西威(002920,股吧)(002920.SZ)及天赐材料(002709.SZ)4只个股获得北向资金增持比例均超0.5%(含0.5%)。

A股市场近期处于调整期。还有哪些方向适合在调整中布局?

天风证券策略联席首席分析师刘晨明认为,当市场目前进入无差别的调整状态后,更重要的是要去寻找三季报业绩能够爆发且能够延续的方向。

光大证券策略团队也表示,由流动性推动的股市上涨在下半年将难以再现,企业盈利复苏将成为推动行情发展的新动能,从这一角度出发,寻找业绩持续改善并且估值相对合理的板块将是下半年的占优策略。

(责任编辑:冉笑宇 )

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